Solar Roof Is Dead On Arrival - Yet Another Reason Why Tesla’s Merger With SolarCity Makes No Sense

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in an unusual presentation Friday evening, put together a press event to discuss a new product that the Company will enable with SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY).

By the end of the presentation, details on cost, performance, or any other specifications were nowhere to be found - other than that the solar shingles look beautiful. Per the company, the product will not be available till next summer. With almost a year to go for purported availability and no specs to offer, why do the product unveil now?

Make no mistake. Solar Roof was a dog and pony show to sell Tesla’s merger with SolarCity to fans and investors.

In spite of the lack of details, what was disclosed was sufficient to conclude that this product is going nowhere.

Firstly, we need to point out that solar shingles is not a new concept. A Google image search will show many different solar shingles including some aesthetically pleasing options. However, none of these have been successful and many companies pitching these products have gone bankrupt.

While there are many reasons for the lack of success, the most important reasons are that the cost of these products was high and the performance was low. These products did not make any economic sense in spite of their supposed aesthetic advantages. We discuss later in this article why the solar roof solution has no practical merit.

Coming back to Tesla, just about the only thing that is going for the Solar Roof concept, and the only thing that Mr. Musk emphasized, is the look of the products (4 different varieties - see image below).

Solarcity Earnings Heading Quietly Into The Sunset

SolarCity’s Wednesday started with a bang and ended with a whisper.

At the end of a day many Americans spent adjusting to the election of Donald Trump as president, SolarCity Corp. reported its third-quarter results. Despite these being potentially the last ever set of numbers as a public company, they were even more downplayed than usual, with no accompanying analyst call.

This might seem strange, given shareholders are due to vote in about a week on whether to approve the company’s merger with Tesla Motors Inc. and that Trump’s elevation is widely seen as a yuge risk to the incentives underpinning the solar leasing business (the stock dropped 4 percent on the day). Bear in mind, though, that last week’s Q&A with the management of the two companies wasn’t the most convincing sales pitch. On that basis, maybe it was best to let the figures speak for themselves.

Not that they were entirely convincing. The first thing to note was the cut to guidance on installations, something SolarCity has now done in all three of this year’s quarterly updates.

Is Tesla’s Elon Musk Throwing A Hail Mary For The SolarCity Deal?

Tesla’s Elon Musk tweeted on Friday that he would pay SolarCity’s debt if it came to that. It was in response to a tweet from David Tayar asking about Tesla assuming SolarCity’s obligations after the presentation on the SolarCity acquisition on November 1. There are major concerns about the merger due to SolarCity’s negative (and increasing) cash flows and therefore its ability to service its debt (and then becoming an obligation to Tesla).

This is compounded by the concern that Tesla may not be legally obligated to pay for the debt (even though Musk says they will be one company) since there is language in at least one of Tesla’s filings with the SEC that “the Company and its Subsidiaries shall not guarantee or otherwise become directly liable for any Indebtedness of SolarCity and (b) the Company and its Subsidiaries shall not permit SolarCity to guarantee or otherwise become directly liable for the Indebtedness of the Company or its Subsidiaries.” This is from an 8-K filing on August 1 and you have to go to the EX-10.1 portion to find it.

Elon Musk’s Wild Ride

Elon Musk recently took the stage in Guadalajara, Mexico, for the performance he’s waited a lifetime to give. Sporting a new, oddly manicured mustache, Musk did his best shy Tony Stark impersonation, informing a crowd of space enthusiasts that, yes, he does plan to colonize Mars. Musk’s aerospace company, SpaceX, will send thousands of rockets and people to the Red Planet—perhaps within the decade and perhaps at a cost of just $10 billion. Some of the astronauts will die as part of the experiment. Others will live out their days in … well, Musk was not very specific on that.

Musk continues to befuddle planet earth. He’s part techno messiah—a being sent here from the future to save mankind from itself—and part charlatan—a slick businessman dragging foolish investors along on ever grander, cash-burning bets. Every time one of his companies stumbles, Musk seems to have another spectacular thing to announce—a new mode of transportation, the space internet, or a Martian colony—to thrill and confuse. Is Musk trying to distract us from the troubling aspects of his companies, or are the doubters just the shortsighted, risk-averse people holding us all back from a fantastic future?

Elon Musk is pushing the Tesla-SolarCity merger through despite naysayers and lawsuits

In an SEC form filed on Oct. 7, Elon Musk indicated that the company “is currently planning to raise additional funds by the end of this year, including through potential equity or debt offerings, subject to market conditions and recognizing that Tesla cannot be certain that additional funds would be available to it on favorable terms or at all.”

But in a tweet on Sunday, Musk walked back that statement and said neither SolarCity nor Tesla will have to raise equity or debt in either the end of this year or in the first quarter of 2017. In a revised form, filed on Oct. 11, the company changed the language to “Tesla may raise funds in the future, including through potential equity or debt offering.”

Coal Miner’s CEO Calls Tesla a ‘Fraud’ and Elon Musk Tweets It

For its part, Tesla was downgraded to neutral from a buy rating by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last week. The company’s shares have dropped as it moves forward with its plan to buy rooftop solar installer SolarCity Corp., which some analysts have deemed a risky bet. Musk is chairman of SolarCity, and his cousin Lyndon Rive serves as its chief executive officer.

Customers who purchase an electric vehicle can claim a $7,500 federal income tax credit and several states offer additional incentives, according to Tesla’s website.

Tesla will let Musk’s tweet “stand as a comment,” spokeswoman Alexis Georgeson said in an e-mail. The Clinton campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Countdown for Tesla

Patrick Foulis joins host Simon Long to take a look at the financial gymnastics keeping Elon Musk’s business empire afloat. Also: the shadow economies that need a fuse of transparency and private equity’s socialist secret

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